In 2006 I worked at a health club/fitness center with Shonna Bertechelli, my former manager. Shonna would always say I should keep my mouth shut because sometimes if I open my mouth people will think I am crazy. That statement is almost true. You see I do have a tendency to say the most outrageous things and they usually end up true.
Here are some examples:
* in 2006 I was able to correctly predict that the real estate company would sell the management rights of the health club I worked at to an outside gym management company. I also forecasted the real estate company’s revenue’s would not increase because their customer base remained constant.
* in April 2009 I correctly predicted that the Census Bureau over hired, trained additional employees for the first phase of the decennial census where staff create the address list. in August 2009 I correctly predicted that the nation’s wokload was overestimated and that a four-week operation would last less than one week. The Associated Press published their findings in February the following year in this article.
* in June 2011 I was hired at a high-frequency trading software firm. One night one of my coworkers asked me how I thought the company was doing. I told him that they had recently hired a bunch of people and so they must be doing fine. But then later that night I recanted my testimony. I came with this prediction, if the company generates X revenue (and I added all the clients revenues in my head from what i heard in the office) and they pay Y expenses (and I added everyone’s salary and estimated those I did not know) then they must have this much cash or debt. Based on my calculations I was able to predict that the company would not generate enough revenue to last them more than a year.
Shonna has recently decided to try to reach out to her contacts in the finance. (which I may add is doing pretty crappy also because of the market violatility, downgrade of U.S. credit rating and European debt crisis) But as I told her getting me hired at a hedge fund might not be a good idea. You see if you’re running a Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, developing exotic instruments and packaging them off to sell to investors at inflated values; you can probably be pretty sure Dick is going to figure out. I am reminded of this story an analyst in 2008 of Philip Falcone’s Harbinger group decides he will short the Wachovia stock.
I am confident that if I were hired in finance before the 2008 market collapse I would have been able to predict it. And so I leave you with another favorite snippet story. One day at lunch my colleague said that our boss’ was one of the highest regarded managers. If you look back at all the top government officials now they all at some time or another served at his position. One day he was going to be director of a major government agency. I repeated this to one of my other coworkers…and he said:
“If your boss is the manager, you’re the regional technician (my job title). Because between you and them it’s not even close. You’re way smarter than all of them.”